positive expectation win bets. c div p er 1) 2) By the Harville formula (Harville ), the estimated probability of a 1,2 or. simple win betting ratios and the Harville formula). These indirect estimates would then be paired with the direct estimates (the betting ratios in the exacta pools). HARVILLE, D. A., “Assigning Probabilities to the Outcomes of Multi-Entry Competitions,” J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., Vol. 68 (), pp. HAUSCH, D. B.

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I remember at least one attempt to use another model like Harville, but with normal random variables instead. The code to calculate P2nd returns 0. Given every horse’s probability of winning a race, what is the probability that a specific horse will finish 2nd and 3rd? Just had time to go through the top place equation. Placing probability depends far more on the horses involved in a race than on the maths.

Isn’t that the normal Harville formula though, I understood that the discounted Harville was a modification of this to help counter the problem that as you say a horse may have no chance of winningbut high of placing or high chance of winning and none for placing. So am I right in understanding that if you are using your own probabilities then use the. By using our site, you acknowledge that you have read and understand our Cookie PolicyPrivacy Policyand our Terms of Service.

I found it useful to use a 2D array for cormula prob. Post Your Answer Discard By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you acknowledge that you have read our updated terms of service tormula, privacy policy and cookie policyand that your continued use of the website is subject to these policies.


A consistent, satisficing approach is sufficient. Please check for errors.

Michael, Did you remember to change the prob H3, wins value from 0. Find More Posts by Dave Schwartz.

Most are concerned with market efficiency are win odds accurate or are some bettors more knowledgeable late money and appear in the economics literature. Sign up using Facebook. I can’t see any reason for this though!!

Discounted Harville – Page 2 – Horse Racing Forum – – Horse Racing Message Board

Forum Mark Forums Read. Ugly multivariate normal integrals to approximate. There is some pretty interesting stuff there. Formulae in Mathematical Notation Michael, Apologies for not replying sooner but I have not logged on to the forum for a couple of days. Similarly, you have to sum over all trifectas where H3 shows uarville calculate the H3 show probability!

Tags Add Tags exacta yarville probability quinella statistics trifecta. This calculates the probability of finishing 3rd for each horse.

Select a Web Site Choose a web site to get translated content where available and see local events and offers. All good so far.

Harville in Journal of the Hafville. I suspect I have made a silly error somewhere, but any help would be greatly appreciated. Find More Posts by mwilding Hi John, Yes I definately changed that because I used your equation and then I also did each stage in excel seperately. The following code implements the formula: I inadvertently added an additional SUM term to both equations in my original repy – apologies – never post mathematical equations to forum late at night!

As later posters have indicated, the empirical correction figures are averaged over a number of ofrmula for a particular set of racing.

harville – File Exchange – MATLAB Central

All times are GMT Harville at the Georgetown U. These days it seems even more difficult because the money bet off-track is not added to the tote board until after you can no longer make a bet.

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The most relevant one is: The authors provide a table of intermediate values for both lambda and rho but, personally, I have found that the Henery values are satisfactory.

What I am doing is harrville. Home Questions Tags Users Unanswered. Sign up using Email and Password. Spot, Thanks for your comprehensive answer. Hi John, Yes I definately changed that because I used your equation and then I also did each stage in excel seperately.

Michael, Did you remember to change the prob H3, wins value from 0.

Sign up or log in Sign up using Google. John Although I did not find the spreadsheet that JF Dinneen mentioned, I am much more interested in that blog site itself.

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You are now following this Submission You will see updates in your activity feed You may receive emails, depending on your notification preferences. I have developed code to calculate the probabilities by implementing the formulas provided in the above mentioned question.

Select the China site in Chinese or English for best site performance. I have the original henery formula which is very hharville as I am sure you know but hadn’t beena ble to get the revised one, so thank you very much. I just clicked one on of the links “how not to be wrong