In Restructuring the Chinese Economy, Michael Pettis outlines six paths that China can follow—the only logical paths that lead ultimately to. Avoiding the Fall: China’s Economic Restructuring. MICHAEL PETTIS. Copyright Date: Published by: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Avoiding the Fall has 98 ratings and 6 reviews. The days of rapid economic growth in China are over. Mounting debt and rising internal distortions mean t.

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Avoiding the Fall: China’s Economic Restructuring

Mounting debt and rising internal distortions mean that rebalancing is inevitable. Jan 20, Liam rated it it was amazing. China’s Economic Restructuring by Michael Pettis. Some of the argumentation in the book is overly breathless for my taste, especially around global rebalancing. My library Help Advanced Book Search. When Brazil crashed it was not at a world leading level of wealth per capita.

There are no discussion topics on this book yet. The book is definitely worth reading for anyone interested in looking at why China may well crash in the next few years. He also addressed a very big confusion – why has Chinese inflation been so low in the face of growing credit and very high nominal GDP growth.

In many ways the argument this book makes about China’s economy is now conventional–its pettiw has been fueled by investment, the investment is funded through financial repression that results in an Samuel Gruen muchael it really liked it Aug 14, But overall it is an interesting, provocative and timely take on China’s economy. Though China may benefit by making profits, in the end it will still be a producer economy; falp will not be an inventor economy.

How Beijing chooses will determine China’s position in the world for the rest of the century. Pettis lives in Beijing and is a professor of finance there. Will China start selling to its own people? And much of it makes it sound like Pettis has invented some of the more basic concepts.


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Avoiding the Fall: China’s Economic Restructuring by Michael Pettis

He was a very successful trader prior to this. Value investors allocate capital to its most productive use.

Pettis draws apt parallels between China, and Brazil of 70s, US of the 20s and 30s, Japan of the 90s; and very logically goes on to show the need for China to rebalance, followed by how it could potentially do so. John Lowe rated it it was amazing Sep 06, Other editions – View all Avoiding the Fall: A Chinese rebalancing is inevitable and the most interesting question is how it will occur. Vineet Tandon rated it liked it Mar 22, The only question is how to proceed.

In light of these issues, Pettis brilliantly lays out the routes China can take while bearing in mind their limitations. The urgent task of shifting toward greater domestic consumption will come with political costs, but Beijing must increase household income and reduce its reliance on investment to avoid a fall.

avoidibg Want to Read saving…. The days of rapid economic growth in China are over. This closed-loop system may end up being extremely harmful to China in just a few years.

Ksenia Kondrashina rated it it was amazing Jun 20, If China is to rebalance, it must experience a surge in household wealth, whether that is at the expense of its GDP growth or high investment rates. The downside pettiz that notwithstanding this the most benign forms of rebalancing are politically threatening and thus, in Michael Pettis’s view, unlikely to occur.


Zack Sanders rated it really liked it Nov 22, This puts him numerically below many of the other China bears even if his qualitative arguments are similar. Michael Pettis is a senior associate in the Carnegie Asia Program. Brazil does thd fit into the group. If China’s comparative advantage were cheap labor, we would expect its growth to be heavily labor-intensive as businesses laded up on the most efficient input. Jason Kam rated it it was amazing Dec 24, No trivia avoixing quizzes yet.

Avoiding the Fall: China’s Economic Restructuring – Michael Pettis – Google Books

In exchange, however, China’s domestic market will become a bigger source of mjchael as Chinese households benefit from rebalancing.

In the future, the availability of capital, or lack thereof, may force China to reconsider what it believes to be its most valuable economic asset.

The very cheap capital especially means that a very significant portion of the cost — as much as 20 to 40 percent of the total amount of the fa,l — is forced onto depositors just in the form of low interest rates.

Pettis draws apt parallels between China, and Brazil of 70s, US of the 20s and 30s, Japan of the 90s; and One of the best books I have read this year. Chen rated it really liked it Dec 28, Account Options Sign in.